On Tuesday, February 6th, President Trump remarked in comments to reporters in the Oval Office that his administration would “start a big investigation” into the California High-Speed Rail project. He stated the project had “the worst overruns we’ve ever seen in the history of this country.” It was unclear by what means his administration would investigate the project and what the purpose of the investigation would be, but given Trump’s liberal use of executive orders since the start of his term, it’s likely that he’ll try to use an executive order to illegally halt the progress of the project.
In an oblique response to Trump’s comment, the California High-Speed Rail Authority posted on X, formerly Twitter, that it was just “noise.” The agency proceeded to highlight the progress of the project’s construction, pointing to over 50 major structures completed and full environmental clearance obtained between San Francisco and Los Angeles, among other things. Given the President’s recent focus on the initiative, it’s worth a look at the project’s history and progress thus far.
The California High-Speed Rail Authority was first created in 1996 by the California High-Speed Rail Act with the aim of developing a statewide high-speed intercity rail system. The project itself began in 2008 with the success of Proposition 1A, a statewide ballot that authorized $9 billion in funding for a high-speed rail project between San Francisco and Los Angeles. A further $950 million was also allotted for the purposes of upgrading existing commuter rail systems like Caltrain and Metrolink. The text of the measure stated that trains would need to reach a speed of at least 200 miles per hour and be able to travel between San Francisco and Los Angeles in under 2 hours and 40 minutes. Since the ballot was passed, the California High-Speed Rail Authority has expanded the project into a multi-phase venture, with Phase 1 connecting San Francisco to Los Angeles and Phase 2 adding extensions to Sacramento and San Diego.
The project has faced numerous delays; the initial years of the project were securing parcels of land in the Central Valley along the project’s right-of-way. This process took longer than expected due to a misjudgment of how many parcels were necessary and due to protracted legal challenges surrounding agricultural land acquisition. Construction only began in 2015, but even as of now, only 119 of the 171 miles in the Initial Operating Segment (IOS) between Merced and Bakersfield are under active construction. Construction is primarily creating viaducts for the rail to travel over and redirecting roads and canals.
The project is still not completely funded; by the end of 2023, the California High-Speed Rail Authority had received somewhere in the range of $23.5 to $25.2 billion dollars, according to the 2023 Project Update Report. Current estimates suggest the Central Valley segment of the project could cost between $25 and $33 billion dollars in total, with the entire project between San Francisco and Los Angeles adding around $100 billion dollars to that total, in large part owing to expensive tunneling projects both between San Jose and Gilroy in the Pacheco Pass and between Bakersfield and Los Angeles in the San Gabriel Mountains.
Phase 1 of the project, between San Francisco and Los Angeles, was until recently targeted for completion between 2030 and 2033. However, in a recent letter to the State Government on February 3rd, the Inspector General of California noted that adhering to this schedule seemed “unlikely” and suggested the California High-Speed Rail Authority should take steps to ensure construction is completed in a timely manner. It’s worth noting that, despite this delay, the pace of the project has sped up in recent years; a substantial portion of construction in much of the Central Valley has been completed, and the Authority laid the first track at the start of January.
With regard to a potential challenge from the Trump administration, the federal government holds little power over the project; it’s primarily state-funded, although it did receive federal grants from the Biden administration which could be retracted by the Trump administration. It remains to be seen what action, if any, Trump will take against the high-speed rail project.
